This research aims to identify and measure the factors that affect multidimensional wellbeing in the context of natural and social disasters using a mixed-methods approach that weaves together geospatial, earth observation, and regional scale household survey data, and local-level participatory action investigation. In doing so, we will develop novel multidimensional wellbeing measures and identify outcomes in pre- and post-disaster affected areas across Asia. The results of this study will help direct bilateral and development cooperation funding toward enhanced resilience following conflicts and natural disasters.

Why do this research?

This project is motivated by key challenges to disaster recovery, risk reduction, and resilience. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction provides a useful roadmap for addressing these challenges; however, assessments of disaster risk reduction, recovery, and resilience have historically prioritized the economic and physical aspects of wellbeing. Ongoing work to include broader, intangible, and interconnected dimensions of wellbeing is nascent and remains an important area for research. While this applies broadly across disaster-affected and disaster-prone regions, this is particularly true in conflict-affected and fragile contexts where physical security is threatened.

Disasters could serve as opportunities to foster cooperation between conflict parties and build more resilient and inclusive institutions. Integrating climate change, for instance, into humanitarian efforts following disasters could reduce short-term and long-term vulnerabilities of societies to adapt to conflict and environmental risks. In some cases, disasters can shift power dynamics that could escalate existing conflicts, but there are also cases where they could weaken conflict parties, reducing the intensity of conflicts, at least in the short term. Additionally, the spatial dimensions of disasters and conflicts and pre-existing governance mechanisms and political trends determine the impact of disasters on peace/conflict conditions. This project will provide a fine-grained analysis of these pathways between disasters and peace/conflict conditions.

What you want to do in the future

Using large, publicly available data we will identify the mechanisms, governance, and implementation pathways through which development cooperation and disaster aid contribute to multidimensional wellbeing outcomes in the Asia-Pacific region. The use of ethnographic methods to ground truth the calculated impact at the household level is a novel approach to evaluate conflict, disaster relief, and well-being impacts years after disaster recovery. To do these, we will employ the following three integrated phases.

Phase 1: Regional-scale geospatial and machine learning analysis

1.1.     Co-design key indicators for disaster and post-disaster exposure and relevant candidate driving variables associated with household wellbeing outcomes

1.2.     Georeference Asia Barometer household survey data and construct multidimensional wellbeing indices

1.3.     Construct geospatial database using geospatial and earth observation data and conduct spatial analysis to append spatial data to Asia Barometer household survey observations

1.4.     Conduct random forest regression and spatial-econometric modeling to identify the impact of disaster exposure, governance, landcover change, and other driving variables on household-level multidimensional wellbeing

1.5.     Produce analysis report and methodology design for Phase 2 downscaling

1.6.     Conduct synthesis workshop with research partners

Phase 2: Downscaled geospatial and household survey analysis

2.1.     Confirm candidate locations (Philippines and Indonesia) and contact local partners

2.2.     Co-develop semi-structured interviews with local partners and obtain ethics research approval

2.3.     Survey implementation: Training and hiring enumerators, field testing interview questions, adjusting research questions, and updating ethics clearance as needed.

2.4.     Qualitative text analysis and geospatial analysis

2.5.     Integration with quantitative model

Phase 3: Inter-stakeholder qualitative and participatory action investigation

3.1.     Map relevant stakeholders in case study sites and systemize information to identify interconnectivity among stakeholders
3.2.     Develop semi-structured interview protocols and obtain ethics research approval
3.3.     Construct participatory workshop plan to engage stakeholders in joint analysis and knowledge creation
3.4.     Conduct focus groups with communities involved in disaster risk reduction and recovery using participatory action research approach
3.5.     Synthesize research outputs in draft publications and policy briefs