Outline of the project

Globally, the rate of natural disaster occurrence has been increasing, partly due to contemporary climate change, and adaptation to natural disaster risks is increasingly important to the sustainability of human societies. At the same time, many societies are experiencing shrinking populations. Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) takes advantage of the multi-functionality of ecosystems and biodiversity, including their capacity to mitigate natural disasters while providing multiple ecosystem services, and population decline provides ample opportunity for implementing Eco-DRR. Our project will develop practical solutions for implementation of Eco-DRR by visualizing natural disaster risks, evaluating multifunctionality of Eco-DRR solutions, conducting transdisciplinary scenario analysis, examining traditional and local knowledge of disaster risk reduction, and collaborating with the insurance industry and other sectors.

Background and goals

Figure 1 Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction not only lowers disaster risks but also enhances benefits of ecosystem services by reducing the exposure of human activities in high-hazard locations and supporting human activities in low-hazard locations.

Climate change impacts natural and human systems, and these impacts are projected to intensify in the future. Our project focuses on reducing risk and developing management strategies related to natural disasters. The risk of natural disasters results from the interaction between a climate-related hazard, and the exposure and vulnerability of human activities (Fig. 1), so that adaptation to natural disaster risk can be realized by reducing exposure (e.g. by improving land use) and vulnerability to hazards.

Hard-engineering natural disaster countermeasures have target safety levels below which natural disasters can be prevented. Although these countermeasures are effective if the hazard level of natural disaster is below the target safety level, societies increasingly face situations in which hazards exceed safety levels, resulting in devastating natural disasters. Eco-DRR approaches focus on lowering the exposure of human activities to natural hazards, so reducing, if not preventing, associated losses and damages. Eco-DRR approaches, meanwhile, take advantage of the multi-functionality of ecosystems, complementing conventional approaches to natural disaster management, even though the effectiveness and multi-functionality of Eco- DRR is not yet clearly and quantitatively understood.

The population of Japan increased substantially over the last century, increasing the risk of and public exposure to natural disasters. Recently, however, the population is aging and shrinking, leading to the abandonment of farmlands, houses and decreases in other intensive land uses, a challenging circumstance that nevertheless provides an opportunity for improving land use. Evaluating past natural disaster risks in both expanding and shrinking population contexts therefore provides valuable information of adaptation strategies considered in Japan as well as in other countries.

Given this background, the ECO-DRR project sets two main goals. First, it develops methodologies to evaluate Eco-DRR multi-functionality and assess Eco-DRR by comparing multi-functionality in the past, present and future. Secondly, the project supports Eco-DRR implementation through transdisciplinary collaborations with local communities, governments, insurance industry and other stakeholders.

Research objectives