Research Objectives and Topics

 

Objectives and results

a. Original objectives and their attainment

 　The original research objectives include the following four points:

(1) To examine and diagnose the structure of land and water management in agricultural production systems in arid areas, especially to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between cropping systems and hydrological cycle and water balance in farmland and its environs.

(2) To develop the methodology or model for integrated assessment on impacts of climate change and adaptations for it on agricultural production systems, mainly on the aspect of the land and water management.

(3) To assist the development and improvement of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) for more accurate prediction with higher resolution of future changes in regional climate.

(4) To assess the vulnerability of agricultural production systems from natural change and to suggest possible and effective measures for enhancing sustainability of agriculture, through integrated impact and adaptive assessment of climate changes.

The research goals attained in the above original research plan are outlined below with the reasons for those portions not addressed:

(1) Quantitative evaluation of relationship among land, water and other elements in the fields and river basin: By developing the models on water movement, the water dynamics in the field and basin werevaluated quantitatively, while the factors that decide land use and soil condition were not analyzed due to limited basin survey and lack of basic basin information and data.

(2a) Generation of future regional climate scenarios: The generated scenarios are the best available at this moment for assessing the impacts on agriculture production systems. Two General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used as planned, but only one RCM was used for downscaling their outputs.

(2b) Analysis of mechanism, degree and extent of impacts and adaptation of climate change on agricultural production systems: The mechanism, degree and extent of impacts were made clear to the expected extent. On the other hand, adaptation was not projected in relation with basic policy of agriculture and environmental conservation.

(3) Review of the relation of agriculture with regional environment and resources: Analysis of the basic relation among agriculture, natural condition including climate, and socio-economic condition including history in the case study area were not studied satisfactorily due to insufficient availability of research organization and resources.

(4) Preparation of adequate information for improvement of the agricultural production and future measures for climate change: The present and future possible problem on land and water management were identified and methodology for quantitative analysis of climate change impacts was developed with primary outputs, while the actual requests or feedbacks from personnel or organizations tackling these problem and making decision for them did not materialize.

 

b. Specific research findings

 This project was implemented in Turkey in cooperation with TiJBITAK (Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council) selecting the Seyhan River Basin located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey having a catchment area of 25,000 mz. Since the study area was changed from Israel to Turkey in the final stage of the Feasible Study, this project had to be initiated without any past research experiences or foundations, and consequently it took time and cost to organize the research team in Turkey and to acquire basic information. Against these constraints, the efforts of collaborative researchers and their organizations developed a process to realize the project objectives through trial and error, and finally produced the expected results.

 

　The major findings and outcomes are outlined as follows.

(1) On future changes in climate and hydrology

(a) As the method to generate future regional climate for assessing the climate change impacts, the pseudo-warming experiment method was developed that utilized the re-analyzed climate archive and the GCMs.

(b) According to the output of the RCM that operates with nesting with GCMs for Turkey in the 2070 years, air temperature will increase by 2 to 3.5 degree C in all seasons, and precipitation amount will be decreased by about 20% except during the summer season.

(c) In the Seyhan River Basin, precipitation is projected to be decreased as in the whole of Turkey.

(2) Water resource availability

(d) In the 2070s, less precipitation will reduce the inflow to the huge reservoirs that provide a stable water supply to the downstream water demand.

(e) Future rise in the elevation of sea water will trigger drainage problems in the lower delta region of the basin. Sea water intrusion into groundwater basins will not be so serious with low permeability of the geological profile of the delta.

(3) On wheat production

(f) The developed crop model predicts future increase of wheat yields with higher temperature and increased CO2 in the 2070s.

(g) The projected decrease of precipitation will not affect the yield of wheat significantly. On the other hand, the amount and intensity of rain in the beginning of the rainy season may affect the production of wheat.

(h) There could be higher temperature damage on wheat production. Admission of Turkey to the European Union may affect the future changes of production and price of wheat that was estimated by an economic regression model.

(4) Agriculture and water use in the irrigated region of the delta

(j) If the current cropping pattern continues, water for irrigation requirements in the 2070s under the projected climate could be met.

(k) If the irrigated area is expanded in the upper basin and the area for vegetable and fruits are increased in the delta, the irrigation period will start in earlier season and some water shortages may occur.

(1) Much increase in groundwater use to compensate water shortage will result in lower groundwater table and seawater intrusion into the aquifer in the delta area.

(m) Much seepage losses from irrigation canals occur presently due to decrepit structures and unconsciousness on water saving, and its significance in the 2070s will increase the water shortage condition. However, managing seepage losses may reduce shortages considerably.

(5) Findings on agriculture and environment through climate change impacts assessment

(o) Since wheat is a staple food crop and suitable for natural resources and environment in Turkey, its future changes in yield and quality are to be studied and monitored.

(p) Effects of higher temperature with higher CO2 concentration on crop production, even of major crop like wheat, are not clear presently and basic research on this issue is one of the urgent research topics related to global warming.

(q) In the Seyhan River Basin, water resources are developed to a considerable extent with huge reservoirs constructed in the mid-stream and are utilized effectively for domestic use, irrigation and power generation.

(r) The large scale irrigation scheme in the lower basin has not modified basin hydrological cycle much and has not led to serious environmental issues.

(s) Restructuring of irrigation management organizations and improvement of their functions are needed for more efficient water use and water conservation measures as well as for management cost.

(t) When the irrigation facilities are rehabilitated, future possible changes in cropping pattern should be taken into account, including expansion of fruit production.

(u) To prepare the counter measures for changes in natural condition and resources including climate change due to global warming, it is important to collect and compile useful information continuously, and participation of all stake holders in the field of agriculture, water resources, and metrology, including farmers.

(v) To establish sustainable land and water use even with global warming, it is imperative to identify better adaptation or management with future projection by the state-of-the art technology like the latest climate models.

Adaptive management is to be one of the alternatives for sustainability.

 

c. Research findings outside of original expectations

(1) A new downscaling method of the GCM outputs called "pseudo-warming technique" was developed. In this method, reanalysis data is used as the boundary condition for the RCM and climate change bias of the GCM is added to reanalysis data for downscaling. The output has much better agreement with observed data compared to the ones of conventional downscaling so that end user can use it without further elaborate corrections.

(2) For precise hydrological analysis, grid daily precipitation is indispensable. This project contributed to the establishment of a new project for generating grid daily precipitation record for the middle-east region, by means of data collection and human resources.

(3) It was found out that climate change would affect growth and mating season of small ruminants. Consequently agro-ecological relation between the farmland and cattle (fodder production, pasturage, cattle-dung use as organic manure, etc) was projected to change considerably. But unfortunately, we could not carry out elaborate research to quantify this issue within project period.

Relevance of research findings to RIHN's philosophy

 

a. How deeply have these findings delved into a chosen form of "human-nature interaction" that you believe constitutes a global environmental problem?

　The main focus of this project was to study how humans have utilized and managed regional resources and environment including climate, and how deeply human society depends on these conditions. This means implication of　agriculture as the interface between natural system and human society. Though agriculture has been long-lasting and local activity, in these decades, it has become controlled by the global market with rapid world-wide expansion of production and trade of food. In this process, agriculture has been loosing its specific features matching local conditions, and water and material cycle has shifted from their original natural situation. These changes are inducing world-wide issues to a large extent in terms of spatial scale and number of people and human elements, and consisting of the global environmental problems. Especially in arid areas, where water and other natural resource are limited, agriculture and its land and water use intensely controls life and production, and there is a need to identify the problem structure and to prepare better solutions for them.

　Climate change due to global warming will affect natural condition for agriculture like land and water resources and consequently impacts agricultural production. With these impacts, humans may act to adapt to the changes or to mitigate the damages caused by climate change. 　　

These human reactions may result in other changes in the environmental problems mentioned above. Therefore, for better solution of the problems, it is essential to understand and project the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, and to let local knowledge and system react to the changes. In other words, it is important to recognize the local events in local points of view in a region and to prepare and select the best ways to treat the anticipated problems.

　In this project, a method to diagnose the problems on land and water use and identify the crucial points was developed. In Turkey, where the case study area is located, the project provided the opportunity to establish new research organizations and cross-disciplinary approach to the problem, and promoted to enhance the consciousness on importance of impact assessment of global warming on basin hydrology and agriculture.

 

b. How well has the process of achieving "better human life in the future" been revealed?

　In this project, "better human life in the future" is defined as the life or society with the system and its performance to realize, maintain and improve the life and production with a certain quality and level, taking historical and regional aspects into account. According to this definition or context, in agricultural production, especially in land and water management that was mainly studied in this project, the foundation of the regional system was identified that could sustain agricultural land and water management under the local conditions and constraints essential to the "better human life in the future".

　In this viewpoint, the project succeeded in identifying the elements that should be included into the condition of agriculture, land and water for "better human life in the future". On the other hand, studies on water and material dynamics and mechanism of problem occurrence in agriculture were not completed including the dynamics of soil salt, fertilizers and agrochemicals. Thus, in the future, studies on these dynamic and the way to establish sustainable land and water management for sound and safe life based on these process studies are necessary.

　In addition, regarding impacts of global warming of main aspect of the project, the next research subject is to be prediction of impacts on agriculture, land and water management, evaluation of the extent of these impacts; and prepare the way to control the impacts to an acceptable level.

 

c. To what degree have requirements concerning integratedness, internationality, and leadership been fulfilled?

(1) Through generation of social scenario and exchange of qualitative and quantitative outputs, fair integration was obtained among climatology, hydrology, vegetation ecology, irrigation science, crop science, livestock science and agricultural economics. However the project lacked participation of history, geography, sociology and pathology.

(2) As the project was initiated as a bilateral academic collaboration, we paid a lot of effort to establish interchange of knowledge and experiences. However, apart from Japan-Turkey relation, substantial partnership or collaboration with on-going international research projects was not obtained. Our research outcomes are lately attracting attention at many international conferences and we will continue to submit our research outcomes to journals and international societies.

(3) The members of secretariat office at RIHN worked very diligently and maintained good leadership over collaborators of Japan. However, there was a delay in establishment of research team in Turkey and this had an adverse effect in the progress of the project. Mission, responsibility and the way of collaboration should have been described more explicitly from the beginning.

 

d. What has this research project done to accumulate knowledge that will help improve global environmental problems?

(1) We have established a methodology to assess impact of climate change on agricultural production system at a regional (basin) scale, combining climatic and social scenarios. We have found that integration of social scenario (obtained through dialogue of experts) with quantitative physical models for generation of quantitative projections is the only way to assess possible changes more than 50 years in the future.

(2) A-pseudo-warming technique developed in the course of this project would contribute significantly to raising the accuracy of projection of regional climate changes.

(3) This project contributed to establishment of a new project for generating grid daily precipitation record for the middle-eastern region, by means of data collection and human resources.

e. What has been achieved through cooperation with other research projects?

(1) We shared basic methodology for assessment of agricultural system with project P1-2FR (RR2002 on Yellow River). Irrigation Management Performance Assessment Model (IMPAM) was developed through analysis of the Lower Seyhan Irrigation Project and it is now being applied to irrigation districts in Yellow River Basin.

(2) We shared basic idea of resilience of agro-ecological and social system with project P1-3FR and contributed to establishing its objective at its early stage.

(3) Traceability concept of project P2-6FS could bring large technical breakthrough in analyzing environment quality dynamics in the agricultural production system. We have started employing some of their techniques.

Important issues that remain to be addressed and plans to deal with them in the future

(1) Land use and water use have large influence on regional climate system. Therefore, before evaluating the impacts of climate change there is a need to assess the response of the regional climate to change in land and water use,too.

(2) A systematic model for projecting possible adaptations of farmers or the region towards climate change should bedeveloped.

(3) Geologist, hydrologist and soil scientist should work inter-disciplinary to quantify the impact of climate change on environmental quality dynamics of the basin and agricultural region.

(4) Consciousness, value and behavior of farmers towards land and water management have large influence to their capacity for adaptation. This human aspect should receive more research attention.

 

 

Communication of research findings

a. Communication to general society

(1) The project leader and collaborative researchers ofthe project have introduced the outcomes on local environment land and water management in the books published for the general public. Books based on the project findings are in preparation in Japan and Turkey.

(2) The project leader and collaborative researchers of the project have given lectures and talks in symposium or other events for ordinary people, NPO, university and high school students, and engineers.

(3) In the case study area in Turkey, the research outcomes are reported to the farmers and governmental organizations related to agriculture and water management and to be reflected to identifying the future tasks and measures(planned to be held in February, 2007).

(4) In Japan, project findings supported the TV Program on water in agriculture in the world of NHK in 2005, and in Turkey, the documentary program "Global Warming" is going to be broadcasted by TRT (Turkish Radio Television) in three series, which are to be "Climate" "Water" and "Land" under the scientific consultancy of some Turkish collaborators of the project with project findings.

(5) Some project outcomes were presented at international conferences and initiatives related to environmental issue including IHDP and ESSP.

(6) The project leader provided the Cabinet Office and the Science Council of Japan with the outcomes and suggestions of the project as the references of their master plans and tasks.

b. Communication to academic circles

The project has disseminated the results to the academic society in the following ways.

(1) Many scientific papers were published and presented in the international and national journals and conferences,and more are ready to be submitted. At the end of February 2007, 33 books and book chapters, 91 peer reviewed papers, 71 non reviewed or conference papers, and 68 other articles were published.

(2) Books on impacts of climate change for researchers, engineers and students are under planning in Japan and Turkey.

(3) In April 2006, the project and RIHN co-organized the International Symposium in Adana in the case study area on land and water management and discussed the methodology and research results of the project in the international context.

(4) Based on the outputs, and experiences of this project, the project leader supported to establish the Working Group on Global Climate Change and Irrigation of ICID (International Commission of Irrigation and Drainage) in 2006, and is disseminating the project outcomes to the international organizations and institutions including FAO, IWMI, ICARDA, and IPCC.