Problem, background, and objectives

  The nexus approach emerged in the international community on the premise that: 1) social and climate change put pressure on water, energy, food resources; 2) demands for water, energy and food are estimated to increase by 40%, 50%, 35%, respectively by 2030; 3) increases in the number of tradeoffs and potential conflicts among these resources that have complex interactions. For example, change in global water demand between 2000 and 2050 shows that water demand for irrigation is highest in both 2000 and 2050. Moreover, water demand for electricity is expected to rise in 2050. This would lead to serious trade-offs in water resources among irrigation, domestic, manufacturing and electricity in 2050. The global risks interconnections map published by the World Economic Forum at the beginning of this year demonstrates that food crises, water crises and energy price shocks are interconnected global risks. To address these issues, the nexus approach could enhance water, energy and food security by increasing efficiency, reducing trade-offs, building synergies and improving governance across sectors.

  Under such global trends, the objectives of the project are to understand the complexity of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus system, and to create policy options to reduce trade-offs among resources, and to alleviate conflicts of resource users using scientific evidence and under assumptions of uncertainty to maximize human-environmental security. We examine surface and groundwater use for energy production including small-hydropower, geothermal, hot spring and shale gas. Conversely, we focus on energy use for pumping and heating water. In addition, we address water use for fishery and agricultural production, acknowledging that the water cycle is essential for the ecosystem. We also suggest that water use for producing or consuming food or energy on land might affect fisheries production in coastal areas, inasmuch as the flow of nutrients from land to ocean affects the coastal ecosystem. It suggests there is a trade-off in water resources between land and coastal areas.

 

Methodology, structure and schedule, Project organization and membership

  60 researchers in different disciplines from 5 countries including Indonesia, the Philippines, Canada, Japan and the USA are involved in the project consisting of five groups that carried out the following: 1) Biophysical measurements and analyses using space satellites, geothermic, and hydrogeological techniques (the water-energy nexus group); 2) Biophysical measurements and analyses using geochemical, coastal oceanographic, geophysical, hydrologic, and ecological methods including isotopic tracers (the water-food nexus group); 3) Stakeholder analyses, social network analyses, community surveys, and scenario planning based on sociology, economics, and behavioral science approaches (the stakeholder analysis group); 4) Socio-cultural study group examined the roles of a science-policy interface, and studied the socio-cultural history of groundwater use (the science in/for society team); and 5) The interdisciplinary group conducted research with a mission to: i) identify appropriate research questions; and ii) determine methods and/or create new discipline-free methods based on synthesizing and harmonizing team-based production, collected from individual scientists in different disciplines from each team in order to assess human environmental security. In addition, the team further developed these approaches to incorporate non-scientific/-disciplinary views on the analyses; and iii) design a nexus system.

Expected results

  To address the water-energy nexus, we 1) created three-dimensional geological models, groundwater flow models and hydrothermal models to understand the underground environmental system and 2) analysed effective potential energy production using water, 3) diversified renewable energy sources such as small hydropower generation, hydrothermal energy and shallow subsurface heat energy development, 4) established a water balance model for energy production, and 5) created awater security vulnerability map.

  To approach the water-food nexus, we 1) examined the interlinkages between submarine groundwater discharge (SGD), nutrients, primary production and fishery production, and 2) conducted cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for food production.

  Regarding the water-energy-food nexus, we 1) observed the impacts of hydrothermal energy development on ecosystems, 2) conducted CBA of cascade use of hydrothermal energy for food production.

  We also took a social science approach to 1) study the socio-cultural history of groundwater, 2) reviewed institutions for groundwater management, and 3) evaluated the economic value of local resources such as groundwater and ecosystems.

  The stakeholder analysis group 1) identified stakeholders and their interests based on a questionnaire survey at a local scale, 2) conducted an online survey to clarify differences in public attitudes toward energy production at a regional scale, 3) developed a method to develop governance for coexistence between energy development and conservation, 4) visualized a social network of stakeholders using network analysis tools, and 5) analysed social acceptability on energy development such as micro-hydropower and geothermal energy development.

  And the interdisciplinary group developed 1) integrated methods for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches and designed and visualised the nexus system.

  One of the characteristics and challenges of our project was to take an integrated approach based on the framework of holistic thinking, system thinking and the nexus approach. We created integrated models and future scenarios based on co-production activities.

 

Contribution to the program

  The goals of the Programme 2 are to provide multifaceted options to stakeholders involved in production, distribution, and consumption of resources, in order to realize fair use, optimal management, and wise governance of diverse resources including energy, water and ecological resources. Since the objectives of the nexus project are to understand the connections of natural and social events focusing on water-energy-food resources and to create policy options to reduce trade-offs among resources and to alleviate conflicts of resource users, the achievements of the project contributed to the goals of the Programme 2.

1. PROJECT PROGRESS DURING FULL RESEARCH

  We address two primary objectives; A) to understand the complexity of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus system, and B) to create policy options to reduce trade-offs among resources and to alleviate conflicts of resource users using scientific evidence under assumptions of uncertainty to maximize human-environmental security. The Water-Energy and Water-Food Nexus Groups pursue objective A; and the Socio-culture of Resource Usage Group, the Stakeholder Analysis and Interdisciplinary Groups focus on objective B. The research results of all groups will be published in Apr. 2018 in an edited volume by Springer, while a book published in Japanese will focus on WEF nexus issues and local studies on Water-Energy next summer.

  During five research years, to address objective A, the Water-Energy Nexus Group conducted biophysical measurements and analysis using space satellites, geothermic, and hydrogeological techniques, examined the changes in river and coastal ecosystems caused by changes in the heat environment, and examined how to diversify among renewable energy sources. To approach the water-food nexus, the Water-Food Nexus Group examined the interlinkages between groundwater and fishery production quantitatively.

  To address objective B, the Socio-culture of Resource Usage Group developed a science-policy interface based on its examination of the socio-cultural history of groundwater use; the Stakeholder Analysis Group developed a model of governance for coexistence between hot spring energy development & conservation, visualized a social network of hot spring stakeholders, and conducted a scenario planning process. And the Interdisciplinary Group developed integrated methods for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches and designed a nexus system.

【Water-Energy Nexus】

  We analysed the underground geological structures using microtremor array measurements, and explored gravity basement structures to understand groundwater storage and flow direction. We conducted a quantitative analysis of how much energy it is possible to produce per kg of water, among small hydropower in Beppu, shale gas in Canada, and hot spring drainage water in Beppu.

  We found that shale gas most effectively uses water to produce energy. However, we should also consider social and environmental aspects of shale gas development. To diversify renewable energy sources, the potential of electricity generated by small hydropower was calculated in Otsuchi town; and it was about 2,000 Megawatt-hours, which accounts for 4% of all electric power consumption in the town. We also could reduce about 2,000 tons of CO２ emissions. Regarding the ground heat exchange system, soil temperature readings in Obama and Otsuchi revealed that the soil temperature in Obama is higher than in Otsuchi. While previous studies show ground warming, further research is needed to utilize the energy from ground heat for application of heat pumps. In Beppu, another finding shows that changes in the heat environment caused by drainage water from hot spring resorts and hot spring power generation affect river ecosystems. Hot spring drainage creates a more suitable habitat for Nile Tilapia, a foreign species. If new power generation facilities increase the amount of hot spring drainage, then the possibility exists that other rivers will show similar environmental conditions as in the Hirata River. Furthermore, we examined and found that the thermal energy of SGD affected the coastal environment

【Water-Food Nexus】

  We examined interlinkages between groundwater and fishery production. Specifically, changes in SGD rates cause changes in nutrient flux, which results in changes in primary production, leading to changes in fishery resources. We found that there was a positive correlation between phytoplankton primary production and radon concentration, as a groundwater tracer of SGD in several bays including Obama Bay. Regarding the relationship between SGD and nutrient flux, we found nutrients supplied from SGD have a high contribution to primary production. As a result of addressing SGD and fisheries production, we discovered that more fishes were found near SGD.

【Socio-culture of Resource Usage】

  We clarified the change in groundwater use including users, purposes and socio-cultural values of groundwater in Obama based on onsite surveys. To help the general public including children understand nexus concepts, a new board game that describes the relationship between fisheries (food) and fuel (energy) was developed by the group. We plan to use this game as environmental education material for high school and university lectures or active learning worldwide.

【Stakeholder Analysis】

  The Stakeholder Analysis Group identified governance issues towards the coexistence between hot spring energy development and hot spring resource conservation. We also visualized the result of social network analysis regarding hot spring stakeholders including owners of hot springs, power generation businesses, and local banks and consultants, who shared the same interests in Beppu. As for the scenario planning process, we identified each stakeholder’s interests, held stakeholder meetings and expert meetings in Beppu. We provided many scenarios and developed future possible stories by collaborating with stakeholders, the general public and experts.

【Interdisciplinary】

  We developed and implemented various integrated methods to address WEF nexus issues. We classified integrated methods as qualitative and quantitative, and each contribute to both interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research. The qualitative methods that we analysed consisted of questionnaire surveys, ontology engineering and integrated mapping. The quantitative methods included physical models, benefit-cost analysis, integrated indices, and optimization management models. As a result, we identified the pros and cons of each method. To address the temporal scale, we determined if we could use each method to address the nexus during the initial stage, developing stage and policy planning stage to design future scenarios.

  We recapitulated terrestrial, especially underground, marine and social systems, which we addressed in Beppu. The group also developed methods to link terrestrial and marine systems. While the Stakeholder Analysis Group is in charge of addressing social system including stakeholders such as allocators, distributors, and hot spring inns, the Socio-culture of Resource Usage Group examines cultural significance of nexus resources in hot spring resort areas. The challenge of our project was to understand these linked terrestrial and marine systems. The Interdisciplinary Group challenge was to design a framework to understand the complexities of these nexus systems using an ontology methodology. The purpose of designing nexus systems is to visualize the linkages between events using ontology engineering, to identify trade-offs and to find efficient resource use, in order to define the academic concepts of nexus and to contribute to scenario planning process in Beppu.

 

2. PROJECT ORGANIZATION AND MEMBERS

 The project is designed consisting of 5 groups including the Water-Energy Nexus Group (G2), the Water-Food Nexus Group (G3), the Stakeholder Analysis Group (G4), the Socio-culture of Resource Usage Group (G1), and the Interdisciplinary Group (G5).

  The target of G2 is to examine the water-energy nexus and its linkages to the surrounding environment towards more efficient energy production and the diversification of renewable energy sources. Major research agendas include 1) the evaluation of geothermal energy potential by Dr. Jun Nishijima (Kyushu University), 2) the effect of hot spring use to river ecosystems by Dr. Makoto Yamada (Ryukoku University), 3) the assessment of potential small hydropower generation by Dr. Masahiko Fujii (Hokkaido University), 4) the examination of underground geological structure and groundwater flow by Dr. Yuji Miyashita (Kanagawa Hot Springs Research Institute) and Dr. Hideki Hamamoto (Center for Environmental Science in Saitama), 5) Dr. Hideki Hamamoto constructed of shallow geothermal potential map. Dr. Masahiko Fujii (Hokkaido University) is a leader of G2.

  G3 examines the interlinkages between groundwater and fishery production focusing on the supply of nutrients by groundwater at Obama, Otsuchi, and Beppu bays. The group’s major goal is to examine the influence of submarine groundwater discharge on primary production and coastal fisheries. Contributors include Professor Osamu Tominaga and Dr. Ryo Sugimoto from Fukui Prefectural University, Ms. Hisami Honda (RIHN), Dr. Shiho Kobayashi (Kyoto University) and Dr. Jun Shoji (Hiroshima University), the leader of G3.

  The role of G4 is to conduct stakeholder and social network analyses and scenario planning for avoiding conflicts on resource use among a diverse set of purposes and stakeholders. The research agendas include 1) visualization of social networks on groundwater resources by Dr. Michinori Kimura (Lake Biwa Environmental Research Institute), 2) stakeholder analysis and co-production of local scenarios on WEF Nexus by Dr. Naoki Masuhara (RIHN) and the group leader, Professor Kenshi Baba (Tokyo City University).

  The objective of G1 is to examine 1) the history of resource use (Dr. Tomohiro Oh, RIHN), 2) the institution of resource governance (Dr. Takahiro Endo, Osaka Prefecture University), 3) the local ecological and socio-cultural significance of natural resources (Professor SeiichiMori, Gifu Keizai University), and 4) to develop a science-policy interface in society with collaboration of all groups. Dr. Tomohiro Oh (RIHN) is the leader of G1.

  The major target of G5 is to determine methods and/or create new discipline-free methods based on synthesizing and harmonizing team-based production, collected from individual scientists in different disciplines from each team. The group’s research agendas include 1) the influence of disaster on recognition of local resources by Dr. Takaaki Kato (The University of Kitakyushu), 2) cost-benefit analyses on WEF nexus by Dr. Kimberly Burnett (University of Hawaii), 3) assessment of the collaboration process in interdisciplinary research by Terukazu Kumazawa (RIHN), and 4) framing the nexus concept and building a systematic framework by Dr. Aiko Endo (RIHN) as the leader of G5, and also the leader of the project.

  One RIHN project researcher and one research assistant are allocated to each group working under each group leader as project secretariat members. Ms Hisami Honda is in G2 and G3, Dr. Naoki Masuhara is in G4. The roles are to conduct research for the group, to support the group leader as secretariat members, and to work for the leader of the project directly as a secretariat member. There are other 2 secretariat members, Ms. Takako Okamoto, who is in charge of administrative work, and Mr. Teramoto, who is a design expert whose role is to visualize project results and achievement for society such as creating posters, leaflets and films. Each group leader and secretariat member make significant contributions to the project directly from both academic and administrative perspectives.

  There are three primary project sites in Japan including Otsuchi town of Iwate prefecture, Obama city of Fukui prefecture, and Beppu city of Oita prefecture. We appointed local scientists as coordinators in each project site, including Professor Tomohiro Kawamura (University of Tokyo) in Otsuchi, Dr. Daisuke Tahara (Fukui Prefectural University) in Obama, and Professor Shinji Osawa (Kyoto University). Their main role for the project is to provide a link between project members and local stakeholders, and they make great contributions to the local events co-organised by the RIHN project and local governments, since they have strong connections with local governments.

  In addition, we also have research members and project sites abroad in 4 different countries including the US, Canada, the Philippines and Indonesia. Each country has a group leader and follows the Japanese structure of the project. Dr. Jason Gurdak (California State University) is the leader of the U.S. group. The major objectives of the group are to examine 1) the implications of water-energy-food nexus for Pajaro valley and California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, 2) to develop integrated hydrologic modeling in Pajaro Valley.

  Professor Diana Allen (Simon Frazer University) is the leader of the Canada group. The major target of this group is to assess hazard-specific vulnerability and future water demand and availability in the context of shale gas development in Canada. The objectives of the Philippines group, with Professor Fernando Siringan (University of the Philippines) as the leader, is mainly to examine 1) lacustrine groundwater discharge in Southern Lanuna de Bay as the case of water-food nexus, and 2) potential and social acceptability of micro hydropower in Laguna de Bay. Dr. Robert Delinom of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) is the leader of the Indonesia group. His group’s objectives include examining 1) the socio-economic vulnerability and benefits of floating fish cages in the Jatiluhur reservoir as the case of water-energy-energy nexus, and 2) the assessment of submarine groundwater discharge at Citarum River Estuary.

  The leaders from each country have online meetings with Japanese group leaders regularly to share their methodologies toward common goals of the projects. Dr. Kimberly Burnett (University of Hawaii) is a member of Group5 and US team, and retains an active role in the project. Furthermore, we have advisory members in Japan, who give project members advice at the international and domestic project meetings. The names of active advisory members are Professor Makoto Taniguchi (RIHN), Emeritus Professors Tomoya Akimichi, Masaru Tanaka, Kazuo Matsushita, and Professor Joji Morishita.

1. To define the academic nexus concept.
2. To understand the complexity of the water-food-energy nexus system, and create visualizations of the linkages between events using ontology-based systems; to identify trade-offs and efficient resource uses; to define the academic concept of nexus, contribute to scenario planning, and design a nexus system.
3. Preparation of policy-relevant future nexus-issue scenarios through collaboration with stakeholders.
4. Development of localized studies that can be up-scaled and produce policy-relevant results; improvement of networking with stakeholders and researchers addressing nexus issue nationally and internationally.