Research Objectives
  People’s  intensions to natural environments must be adequately taken into consideration when human impacts will affect to natural environments. What kinds of values are recognized in natural environments? It is difficult to determine items in nature to be conserved without people’s value judgment on natural environment.  What kinds of environmental qualities are perceived as values? Since people may not share the same natural scientific information about the natural environment and the value judgment,people’s decision may not be always rational. Clarifying the relationship between people’s environmental consciousness and environmental quality and estimating the environmentalchanges occurred by human actions may provide more suitable action plan toward natural environments. In this project, a methodology using both natural andhumane-sociological ways will be tested.

Background

I. Basic concept of the project

  When people are placed in an environment, one may use it to get some benefits,another may conserve it because of existence of endangered organisms and another may ignore it. Why do these differences in attitudes among people occur toward the same environment? Understanding this question is one of the objectives for elucidating relationships between humans and the nature.People’s perception of the environment affects their value judgments on the environment as a basis to determine their attitudes toward it. We define this value judgment system as the “environmental consciousness”. To clarify the relationship between the value judgment of environment and the environmental quality would be an essential to solve global environmental issues.

 

II. Contribution of the project to the global environmental issues

　Forest ecosystem is one of the most important ones under the global environmental change. How does the forest logging change the forest environment? How do people evaluate such environmental changes and the implication of the logging? The aim of the project is relating to the public involvement, which is thought to be the most important in the environmental impact assessment to reach the relevant decision-making.

 

III. Fitness of the project in the framework of the RIHN

  Although natural scientific information about the environment is thought to be important, its application to the public involvement in the environmental impact assessment process has been still immature, particularly in Japan. The project will contribute to make the public involvement being more substantial through the collaboration between the natural science, which analyzes environmental changes, and the social science, which analyzes the environmental consciousness and human activities. The project matches with the main framework of the RIHN, in which the interactive cycle between humans and nature is one of the most important targets.

 

IV. Relationship between study area and global environmental issues

  Various kind of environmental plans have been implemented worldwide. It is very important to assess the environmental impact before the implementation.However, the inadequacies of the environmental impact assessment have been recognized. Although the public involvement (PI) is an important measure for the relevant decision-making and consensus building in the environmental policy, the procedure for the PI in the environmental impact assessment and in the strategic environmental assessment has been still ambiguous. The result of the project will be applicable to the PI procedure.

Significance as an RIHN Project

  Analyses on environmental valuation and the relationship between humans and nature have been studied in academic fields, such as environmental economics and environmental sociology. Although natural scientific information about the environment is thought to be important, its application has been still immature, particularly in Japan. The project has been conducted under the basic understanding of the RIHN that “the root of the so-called global environmental problems lies behind the human culture”. The project has been planned to elucidate the interactive cycles between humans and nature, which is a main framework of the RIHN. The project will contribute to make the public involvement being more substantial through the collaboration between the natural science which analyzes environmental changes and the social science which analyze the environmental consciousness and human activities. The project matches with the main framework of the RIHN, in which the interactive cycle between humans and nature is one of the most important targets.

  It is very important to assess the environmental impact before the implementation. However, the in adequacies of the environmental impact assessment has been recognized. Although the public involvement (PI) is an important measure for the relevant decision-making and consensus building in the environmental policy, the procedure for the PI in the environmental impact assessment and in the strategic environmental assessment has been still ambiguous. The number of researches on environmental planning, in which simulation models of environmental changes are applied, has been increasing (cf. Kaga 2006, Takamura2007). In some researches on the environmental restoration and conservation,the techniques based on the environmental economics such as contingent valuation method (CVM) have been applied (Takamura 2007). Although they are resemble our project, their main contribution is not the construction of the substantial PI, but the evaluation of the environmental policies. Relationship between environmental qualities and people’s environmental consciousness has been less considered in these research. Various kind of environmental plans have been implemented worldwide. The result of the project will be applicable to the PI procedure.

Outcomes of the project as a whole

I.Development of a response-prediction model of a watershed environment to thechanges in land and water resource uses

The PnET-CN model developed by the US forest scientists was applicable to simulate material cycling and vegetation dynamics in the study areas. An hydrologic model (HYCYMODEL, Fukushima 1988) was used for estimating nutrient and water loads from forest to river. Lake water flow model and biogeochemical simulation model have been developed for Lake Shumarinai. Virtual impacts of tree-cutting plans were introduced into the models and assessed their impacts to the watershed environment. Such virtual impacts were used for preparing the scenario questionnaire.

 

II. Elucidation of the relationship between the environmental quality and the sense of value for environments in the environmental consciousness

Questionnaire on people’s interests in a forest-agricultural-aquatic system was conducted to determine ranges of type and scale of virtual impact to the environment. Factor analyses of the questionnaire revealed that people seemed to evaluate environments similarly, with respect to the categories such as direct use value, indirect use values and environmental functions. Assuming several parameters based on direct and indirect use values, we can analyze people’s interests in the watershed environment from the viewpoints of environmental values and people’s attitude. There were differences in preferences of objectives and plans of forest loggings among people. Agriculturists tended to prefer larger logging at adjacent areas. Among environmental changes caused by tree-cutting plans in the forested watershed, deteriorations of water quality in rivers and lake was the most disreputable one. Diversity and uniqueness of people’s environmental value judgment have, thus, been elucidated.

Results of each work group

I. RPM group

Review papers (the Japanese Journal of Limnology, vol.67, 2006) and summary report have been published (Katsuyama and Yoshioka 2006).Research results of each subgroups are as follows.

(1) Carbon and nitrogen cyclings in forest environments

To estimate material cycles and vegetation dynamics, we chose and run the PnET-CN model developed by US forest scientists, using measured data as an input.

The model simulated well the patterns of the biomass increment and leaf nitrogen concentration, and the variations in stream NO₃^-concentrations observed in the forested watershed with different forest ages in Wakayama and Nara prefectures. It suggested that the PnET-CN model could be applicable to our project. Recovery processes of forest biomass were different among type of vegetation (broad leaf and conifers) logged (Fig. 2). Temporal changes in NO₃^- loading to streams were also different.The model was also applicable to other type of environmental changes. It suggested that the effect of the increase in atmospheric nitrogen deposition on the stream NO₃^- concentration was compensated by the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration (Fig. 3).

(2) Rainfall-run off model The simulation using the hydrologic cycle model developed for the Japanese forested watershed(HYCYMODEL) was able to reproduce the seasonal pattern of the monthly NO₃^-concentration. Monthly water and nutrient loads from forests calculated by the PnET-CN model were distributed into streams using the HYCYMODEL.(3) Lake model Simulation model of the water flow and biogeochemical cycling in a lake has been completed. The model suggested that the increase in NO₃^- loading from the forest would cause an increase in abundance of phytoplankton (Chl.a concentration) in are stricted area of the lake.(4) Other results relating to the response-prediction model· Effects of soil-scarification on early vegetation establishment: At the scarification site, light intensity showed a negative effect on the demography of tall-tree species, such as Abiessachalinensis.· Reconstruction of the past environment: From the densitometric analyses the past summer temperature and precipitation in the northern Hokkaido were reconstructed back to A.D. 1651. It was suggested that the Uryu-dam (or, Lake Shumarinai) construction did not affect themicro-meteorological condition in the watershed. Pollen and biogenic silicate analyses have elucidated regional and local climatic and vegetation changes for more than 7000 years (Kawano et al. 2007). The long-term climate change is not only useful for validating the response-prediction model, but it is also used in the questionnaire to the examinees as environmental information.· Japan-Wide Stream Monitoring: This survey is practically the first comprehensive survey on the stream chemistry in Japan(Konohira et al. 2006). Spatial distributions of ionic composition in Japanese natural streams (1278 streams in total) were obtained. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition, annual precipitation, annual air temperature, slope of catchment area and direction of the slope contributed to the stream NO₃^-concentration. The most effective factor was the atmospheric deposition (Shindo et al.2005). On the other hand, dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentration in natural streams seemed to be controlled by the geology of the catchments(Wakamatsu et al. 2006).· Microbial characteristics of Lake Shumarinai: Bacterial biomass (6.83x10⁷ cells ml^-1)was higher than that in eutrophic lakes, although the cell size was rather small in Lake Shumarinai. Picophytoplankton was also abundant (3.8x10⁴cells ml^-1) in the lake. Data set obtained in this survey will be introduced in the biogeochemical model.

II. Social survey group
(1) Survey on people’s interests in a forest-agricultural-aquatic system Questionnaire on people’s interests in a forest-agricultural-aquatic system was conducted to determine ranges of type and scale of virtual impact to the environment. Factor analyses of the questionnaire revealed that people seemed to evaluate environments similarly, with respect to the categories such as direct use value, in directuse values and environmental functions (Matsukawa et al.). Assuming parameters of direct use values (DUV) and indirect use values (IDUV), we can analyze people’s interests in the watershed environment from the viewpoints of environmental values.

(2)Preferences on tree-cutting plans

Tree-cutting for conservation of forest environment and for preventing global warming were approved more (>90%) than that for enlargement of national wood production (ca. 70%). Using the choice experiment(a conjoint analysis), variations in people’s preference on plans of forest loggings were surveyed. Plantation after logging was preferred more than strength and area of logging. Farmers tended to prefer larger logging at adjacent areas. Farmer’s preferences on tree-cutting plans might be relating to their perception of the surrounding forest environment.

(3) Scenario questionnaire

Five environmental qualities (forest landscape, amount and diversity of plant species, recreational use in the forest environment,turbidity of water, and deterioration of water quality in river and lake) were selected as a result of the analysis of keywords expressing images on forest,river and lake environments collected in the questionnaire on people’s interests in a forest-agricultural-aquatic system. Environmental changes in these five environmental qualities caused by artificial impact(tree-cutting) scenarios to the forested watershed were estimated using the response-prediction model applied in the project and observational data. Choice experiment was conducted to determine the importance of these environmental qualities to the people’s value judgment of plans. Among environmental changes caused by tree-cutting plans in the forested watershed, the deterioration of water quality in river and lake was the most disreputable one(Fig. 4). Although local residents in Horokanai town also firstly minded the water quality, they showed a significant concern with the occurrence of turbid water. Inter view survey at the town suggested that their value judgments on environmental changes would be related with the past experience on the severe tree cutting at the national forest in the town.

(4) Scenario workshop(SW)

In Horokanai town, a scenario workshop has been conducted in July 2007. Based on selected future scenarios about Horokanai town and surrounding environments, residents discussed on their future society. Research members acted as interpreters of scenario and environmental changes expected in scenarios. Although bilateral communication between residents and researchers was not yet enough, researchers could facilitate the people’s discussion.Finally, residents have planned some future visions, including opportunities developments on recreational uses and environmental education there.

(5) Other results relating to the social survey Conceptual consideration of the project: The methodology to be developed in the project has been considered from the viewpoint of the system control theory. It was suggested that the system control theory was applicable to the systematic environmental education(Fujihira et al. 2008).

  Although the scenario questionnaire is a powerful survey to understand the relationship between environmental qualities and people’s environmental consciousness, we recognized difficulties to prepare the scenario questionnaire based on the choice experiment. For future applications of the methodology, a manual of the social survey using environmental scenarios will be published. During the project term, we have recognized the critical importance of the collaboration between natural scientist and social scientist to investigate people’s environmental consciousness. However, it took much time for mutual communication, because of differences in terminology and concepts on researches between them. As project was proceeding, the framework of the project method had been getting clearer.We have to regret that more concrete framework was not established at the beginning of the project term. Various kinds of frameworks of the method for collaborating researches on global environmental issues should be proposed and vigorously argued in the RIHN.

  Social and economic analyses have not been included in the project scope. As pointed out by many colleagues of the RIHN, people’s judgment for environmental measures is affected by the socio-economic valuation as well as scientific environmental valuation. The Environmental Valuation Project will be expanded to such areas in the new project conducted by the Field Science Education and Research Center (FSERC),Kyoto University, for which core members engaged in the Environmental Valuation Project are working. Fortunately, the project has been accepted as a cooperative study of the MEXT in December 2008. The project will be implemented in the Niyodo River (Kochi) and the Yura River (Kyoto) systems. Results and experiences obtained in the environmental valuation project of the RIHN will be very useful for the new research project. The project will be endorsed in the network on region study and environmental sciences led by the RIHN.