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Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production System
in the Arid Areas
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| Watanabe Tsugihiro RIHN |
This research project aimed at identifying the direction
and dimensions of the potential impacts of climate changes
and ensuing adaptations in the agricultural production systems of arid regions,
where water resources are limited, based on the projection of future regional
climate changes on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, the case study
region. While the relationship between climate and agriculture in the past and
present was analyzed, the impacts of climate changes, including rise in air temperature,
decrease in precipitation and sea-level rise, on agricultural production systems
were assessed. The project was implemented as an international joint project
in cooperation with the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey.
Summary of Research Outcomes
Climate change in the 2070s in the Seyhan River Basin was
projected by using the latest climate model, and impacts of climate change on
the condition of the river basin and agricultural production were assessed through
generated climate change scenarios. The state-of-the-art GCMs and pseudo global
warming experiments for the 2070s project temperature increase by 2○to 3.5○ in
all seasons and precipitation decrease by about 20% except for the summer season.
Field
experiments and crop models proved that in the future there could be the regions
both of increased yield and decreased yield of wheat, since wheat yield may increase
with raised air temperature and CO2 concentration, while it may decrease with
less precipitation. Natural vegetation also would be affected and the areas of
steppe and evergreen broad-leaved forest might increase in the 2070s while sub-alpine
plant area would decrease. Decreases in snow and rainfall will reduce available
water resources. The expansion of vegetables and fruits of highly profitable
crops and the irrigated area might result in water shortage and less yield in
the irrigated area.
The projections and predictions are the discussions, which
could be recognized as a sort of inference experiment based on the probable conditions
and available information. An adaptive management approach is to be essential
in the future against the global warming.
Contribution to Better Solutions for Global Environment Problems
Climate change due to global warming will affect the natural
conditions for agriculture like land and water resources and consequently impacts
agricultural production. With these impacts, humans may act to adapt to the changes
or to mitigate the damage caused by climate change. These human reactions may
result in other changes in the environmental problems. Therefore, for better
solutions to the problems, it is essential to understand and project the impacts
of climate change on agricultural production, and to let local knowledge and
systems react to the changes. In this project, a method to diagnose the problems
of land and water use and identify the crucial points was developed. In Turkey,
where the case study area was located, the project provided the opportunity to
establish new research organizations and a cross-disciplinary approach to the
problem, and promoted enhanced consciousness of the importance of impact assessment
of global warming on basin hydrology and agriculture.
Disseminations of the Project Outcomes
The project outcomes are distributed through books, lectures,
and reports inside and outside of Japan. Many scientific papers are published
in academic journals and presented in international conferences. The report in
Turkish language was published. In Turkey, the international symposium was held
toward sustainable agriculture, and the project outcomes were broadcasted on
TV programs. The outcomes contributes to tackling with global warming disseminating
the developed methodology and results to the international organizations such
as ICID, International Committee on Irrigation and Drainage.
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